I return the question that a reader and several investors have rightly placed: that will impact the protests in Egypt?
After careful analysis of the Egyptian press and international level, these are my considerations set Wednesday, January 26, inter alia, confirmed the Wednesday and Thursday from sources of communication such as Reuters
"It 's good in my opinion made clear that Tunisia, Algeria and Egypt, three countries are quite different from each location for research impact of these riots will be different for each country.
Speaking of Egypt we must consider the motivations of addressed and who is making.
The riots were put in place by a large group of young activists who protest the lack of youth work and why they want an increase in the minimum wage, protesting against the repressive measures put in act by the police carrying out their work against corruption, against the Mubarak government, which considered dictatorial and suppressive freedom of expression of other political figures.
a short protest mere ideology, and this is confirmed by the fact that although there were riots in the young members of the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization has no participation in any way incited protests .
I believe that the Egyptian government will lavish, even by the latest news of the Egyptian press (not Italian, the precise) is already doing in order to study reforms to the people and thus give the requests of the activists .
Also remember that the United States, which have strong interests with Egypt, has already been activated by providing diplomatic assistance to the government. Egypt is too important to them and can not afford to lose this support, so it will do their best so that everything will be resolved shortly.
And do not neglect the political aspect of the country. Today it is too early to make predictions, in any case, the interest in dance and many are high both for Egypt, the United States, and the latter will ensure that the election result will also be of them.
Regarding the influence of this situation to date has had an impact on stock market Egypt, which has decreased, and the currency. But they are all still waiting to see the developments, which some claim will end in a bubble.
tourism probably will contract, but I think only the "hot" zones, while zones of the Red Sea (Sharm, Hurghada and Marsa Alam) - not involved in the riots - in my presence will remain almost unchanged.
In any case, I would like to bring to mind what happened after the attack in Sharm in 2005: the impact on tourism as a whole, has been minimal and limited in time.
I am confident, and I am convinced that the situation in Egypt will be resolved positively. "
As I said several influential newspapers and confirm my thesis and the first articles were published (source: Reuters) on the impact of protests Egypt will have on tourism, the main (and maybe only!) aspect that can impact on investment real estate in Egypt.
First I want to remember that the protests not involve the whole of Egypt , as incorrectly present the Italian news, but are concentrated in Cairo and Suez in some was an isolated incident in Sallum, a city on the border with Libya, and failed to reach the tourist zones.
We do an initial analysis: WHAT 'important tourism to Egypt?
- the premise that Egypt's GDP is more than 5% (to make us the envy of Italians and Europeans), tourism represents 16% of the gross domestic production (figure recorded in 2009, while the data of 2010 show that the percentage had increased to 20% with the introduction of new flights by low cost airlines).
point out that the real estate market represents approximately 9% of gross domestic production;
- provides 1 / 8 of the job opportunities in the most populous Arab country;
- in 2009 were recorded 12.5 million tourists, while only the first quarter of 2010 was an increase of 29% of inflows. In 2009, tourism revenue of 10.8 billion dollars, and only in September 2010 revenue of $ 9 billion;
- tourism is the primary source of income from abroad.
Here's what Reuters writes:
" WHERE 'The more concentrated influx of tourists in Egypt?
- Major tourist destinations are far from the cities of the protagonists facing these days.
- The Red Sea resorts are those that attract the largest number of tourists .
- The Egyptian Museum and Pyramids of Giza, located in places where there were protests attract many tourists
- Famous There are also places further south as Aswan and Luxor
- The tourists come mainly from Italy, Russia, France, Germany, Great Britain (and Poland, I might add)
COMPANIES ' TOWNS ARE CONCERNED FOR THE PROTESTS?
- Hamed El Chiati, president of the giant Egyptian Travco said: "given the fact that the peaceful demonstration based on reasons, I do not have any negative impact. Provided, of course, the demonstrations have a deadline. "
- A representative of Thomas Cook UK and Ireland said: "We continue to monitor the situation in Egypt and we are in constant contact with the British foreign minister. Our experts on site we have ensured that the demonstrations do not in any way had an impact in any area of \u200b\u200bthe Red Sea " .
How did you react TOURISM INDUSTRY TO PREVIOUS EPISODES?
- The industry has suffered somewhat after the fact of the 58 tourists killed in Luxor in 1997, but since it is "tempered" very well.
- September 11, the second Palestinian intifada, attacks that occurred between 2004 and 2006 all resulted in a temporary decline in tourist numbers, which the industry has recovered very well and quickly .
- Protests will not be a reason strong enough to dissuade tourists to travel to Egypt . But it could be that the news papers on the riots in Tunisia, Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East, help some tourists at the moment to lean destinations for less present on the headlines of newspapers. "
That is what Reuters says.
That is what Reuters says.
Latest reflecting the position of the United States: Obama and Clinton are pushing President Mubarak to take a series of reforms that meet the demands of the protesters.
And you know what I say? In ' hypothesis came one day to the current government opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood, or El Baradei, in the first place would still moderate and not extreme and would not change that much compared to the Mubarak government, and secondly the entrance to the government of a new party because it should never have an impact on tourism? It 's like saying "if the government back to the left, I no longer go on holiday in Italy."
remember that the Muslim Brotherhood has been present since 1928, is in Egypt training policy that relies on the duty of loyalty to traditional Islamic values \u200b\u200b , rejects armed struggle and only thanks to Mubarak was able to participate in elections .
remember that the Muslim Brotherhood has been present since 1928, is in Egypt training policy that relies on the duty of loyalty to traditional Islamic values \u200b\u200b , rejects armed struggle and only thanks to Mubarak was able to participate in elections .
As a final consideration, I invite you to reflect on, in my opinion, intelligent statement issued by the Egyptian Interior Minister Habib al-Adli: "The system in Egypt is not weak. We are a big state, whose administration is supported by the people. will be the million which will decide the future of the nation. Our nation is stable and will not be shaken by these actions . "
Therefore, I reiterate, are confident.
And if any investor would ask me if you need to worry on his investment, I say quietly NO.
And if any potential investor asking me if this is the case for further investment in Egypt, I say calmly.
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